４４９：環境政策のための科学から

やはりCOP会議が近づきネットからの気候変動関連ニュースが多く入ってくるが信頼性の高いレファレンスは首記からの情報である。

今日入った文献紹介から３篇選んで記録しておく。あっという間に１０月も終わる。１１月には新たな案件が出てくるか期待している。２，３カ月も日本にいると疼いてくるのはコンサルの習性だろうか。最近は年越し案件も多く、人が嫌がる案件としては受注しやすい。再公示が多いし、受注難易度は益々下がっているのでクライアントとしては大変だがコンサルとしてはいいことかもしれない。嫌がられる案件は意外と面白いことが多い。地域的には不案内だが行ってみると最高という国も多い。

Effective scenarios for communicating climate change

Researchers have explored what kind of information is effective in influencing the public's perceptions of climate change. They found that individuals may be more likely to relate to climate change if its impacts are presented for the near future, rather than for the longer term.

For most people in Europe, climate change is distant from their daily lives. Climate change action needs to take place at global and local levels and cross-cultural research on public attitudes can be informative. The researchers conducted public surveys and in-depth discussions with members of the public in the UK and Italy to explore attitudes to climate change and the effects of different types of information on attitudes.

The information given to participants consisted of scenarios that combined possible future climate outcomes with socio-economic changes for their local region.

The surveys indicated that views on climate change could be placed into the same four categories for both countries:

Denying - the view that climate change is unimportant and humans do not affect it
Doubting - the view that climate change is important but not caused by humans
Uninterested - the view that climate change is an issue caused by humans but they do not wish to do anything about it
Engaged - the view that climate change is something to face up to and take action on

As all these groups were present in both regions, it may be that similar groups are present throughout Europe. The participants discussed how the future scenarios affected their views on climate change. Socio-economic and climate scenarios provoked discussion and reflection, but did not necessarily motivate a change of attitudes or opinion. The effectiveness of scenarios depended on whether they corresponded with the individual's prior beliefs and their trust in the science.

The research suggested information should be tailored to different public groups according to their beliefs and attitudes. The scenarios were often described as 'otherworldly', and all groups suggested improvements to the scenarios.

Firstly, shorter timescales would be more effective, i.e. 20 years into the future rather than 50. In practice, this may be difficult because differences in 20 years' time are likely to be negligible. Secondly, they called for details on the methods and sources of information used to produce the scenarios to increase their credibility. Thirdly, they suggested that scenarios should be motivational and not based on shock or alarm.

Source: Lorenzoni, I. & Hulme, M. (2009). Believing is seeing: laypeople's views of future socio-economic and climate change in England and in Italy. Public Understanding of Science. 18:383-400.

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Fear is not the answer to communicating climate change

According to recent research, 'frightening' images of climate change may initially attract public attention, but they are also likely to disempower individuals, distancing them from the issue. The research suggests communication strategies should use more 'enabling' images that are relevant to the target audience in combination with these fearful images.

The impacts of climate change will be numerous and varied, ranging from changes in ecosystems to difficulties in insuring against losses caused by climate change. These impacts will affect everyone to some extent. However, engaging the public to take action is proving difficult.

New research investigated the influence of visual and iconic representations of climate change on people's engagement with the subject, in terms of their thinking, feelings and behaviour. The researchers discussed a range of images and icons with participants in surveys, focus groups and interviews.

The results indicated that the public have a large number of images that they strongly, and easily, associate with climate change. These tend to be images of large and extreme impacts such as melting icesheets, visions of rising sea levels and intense heat and droughts.

However, these images also tend to enhance the sense that climate change happens somewhere else, to somebody else. Some individuals react to such images with a fatalistic attitude, feeling they are unable to do anything to help. Others deny climate change, rather than experience the discomfort of its reality.

While the dramatic images were judged to be the most personally important, they were also considered the most disempowering. Enabling imagery, such as an image of a tram, were seen as least personally important, yet made people feel more able to do something about climate change.

Further discussions in focus groups indicated that although dramatic images catch people's interest, they tend to be forgotten after the initial impact. Participants felt other images were needed to communicate local relevance and the possibility of action. However, participants also agreed that global images were still necessary to highlight the importance of climate change.

The researchers conclude that while fear-provoking images certainly have a place, they must be used selectively, and with caution. If people do not feel climate change is a significant issue, using fear-provoking images is likely to cause denial, apathy and avoidance as a way of coping with the unpleasant feelings they bring.

Source: O'Neill, S. & Nicholson-Cole, S. (2009). 'Fear Won't Do It': Promoting Positive Engagement with Climate Change through Visual and Iconic Representations. Science Communication. 30(3): 355-379.

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Media coverage of climate change and international development

Newspapers in the UK reflect a sense of climate change as an impending catastrophe for the developing world, which requires the help of the West. This view partly reinforces the concept of the poor as victims and could influence the public's response to climate change policies.

The mass media is seen as an important source of information for the public about climate change, influencing public perceptions and understanding of the issues as well as government initiatives. For these reasons, the media can influence public support for policy development.

This study analysed media representations of climate change and international development to help show how views are constructed and reflected, and ultimately how policy actions will be received by the public. 158 articles from four 'quality' British newspapers published between 1997 and 2007 were investigated.

Articles were sorted according to eight different viewpoints: ranging from the view that climate change is beneficial, seeing climate change as an opportunity to help lift people out of poverty, right through to reporting that climate change is a disaster for developing countries.

In approximately one third of articles, climate change was portrayed as a potential catastrophe for development in poor countries. Other viewpoints were less common in the analysis but were present. A range of factors appeared to influence how climate change was reported, including:

key events, such as the Kyoto summit and the publication of the findings of the IPCC in 2000/2001
whether the newspapers sought a balanced view (for example, is it a crisis or can opportunities for development be identified?)
the source of the stories (NGO reports or opinions featured heavily, scientific papers were rarely used as the basis for articles)
wider political, social and economic factors, such as government actions

Developing countries and the poor were largely depicted as unfortunate victims of climate change who require urgent help from the rich West. Furthermore, differences between countries in the 'developing world' were not explored in the articles, nor the possible actions of the poor themselves to tackle climate change.

The fact that only 158 articles over 10 years focused on climate change and international development demonstrates the low priority given by UK newspapers to the impacts of climate change on developing countries. This has implications for shaping public understanding of the issue, which in turn could affect, to some degree, public policy.

Source: Doulton, H., Brown, K. (2009). Ten years to prevent catastrophe? Discourses of climate change and international development in the UK press. Global Environmental Change. 19: 191-202.