２０４：イギリスのコンサルタント会社動向

AMAという市場調査会社がちょっと古いが０４年に纏めた報告書がある。イギリスの建設コンサルタント会社の動向をまとめたものである。

CONSULTANT ENGINEERS MARKET UK REPORT 2004

SUMMARY OF REPORT CONTENTS

Changes in the market place have encouraged the growth of the larger consulting engineers. The size of PFI/PPP projects require a level of financial resources which closes the market to the smaller firms and encourages alliances and consolidation in the market in order to attain the critical size necessary for success. In this respect the dominance of the major firms has been extended.

Size of Market

Over the past five years there has been substantial growth in size of the consultant engineering market as measured in terms of fees earned.

Traditionally, the market for Consulting Engineers has been strongly international, reflecting both the imperial heritage and the possibility of exploiting infrastructure opportunities at a time when UK government expenditure on infrastructure was becoming less important. The impact of globalisation and the need to follow clients throughout the world, have underlined this tendency in recent years. The major firms have improved their international presence through a series of selective takeovers and mergers.

Niche specialists will continue to do well, although they may find their interests are best served by timely alliances for major contracts. They will inevitably be less insulated from fluctuations in the level of fee-paying work and this is also true for small firms.

The medium sized firms are those feeling the most constraints both in terms of pressure on costs and in terms of their ability to launch competitive bids. The need to co-operate with other Consulting Engineers and construction companies in order to obtain work will tend to encourage mergers and the development of working alliances with a specialist bias. There are, however, some firms in this category who have been able to benefit from their independent position to obtain work in an advisory capacity, evaluating tenders for public sector clients.

The way in which public sector clients are now without the means of verifying specifications and tenders has encouraged the development of long term relationships with Consulting Engineers - sometimes for as long as 10 years. In reality, the growth of PFI/PPP has transferred a number of public sector functions to the private sector. The growth in the activities of Consulting Engineers in the UK reflects this fact.

Future Market Prospects

Current estimates place the size of the consulting engineers' market at approximately ｣7 billion, of which approximately 35-40% is accounted for by exports. This represents a reduction in the percentage accounted for by exports and reflects the expansion of the domestic market to include Project Management and Facilities Management in the wake of the development of the PFI/PPP market.

The most important infrastructure market segment is transport. In previous years, rail had provided the main market for consultancy services, but attention has recently concentrated on highways as the rail sector has struggled to meet the demand for passenger services. In addition the work on airport development has become an increasingly important sector.

The water industry is also an important market segment for consultant engineer services. Demand for services is linked to the five-year expenditure asset management plan (AMP) approved by OFWAT and follows a cyclical pattern. The industry is currently awaiting the latest announcements on investment expenditure for the 2005-2010 period. Environmental services have also become increasingly important as consumer awareness becomes more prevalent and EU directives more exacting. The need for environmental impact assessments as part of the planning process, means that there is an on-going demand for services - often from an independent adviser. Whilst initially environmental consultant engineers constituted something of a niche market, the large engineering consultancies have moved to either acquire, or develop in-house, the appropriate capacity to maintain their positions as "one stop" providers.

The indications at the present time are that there will have to be an increase in the capacity of the power market if future usage-demand projections are to be met. However, ambivalence remains about the future role of nuclear power and as a result firm decisions are likely to be postponed.

Inevitably, future prospects will be tied to the long term political, and economic, decisions which lead to the commissioning of major new building and construction projects. Although the government may concentrate upon education and hospitals, the prevalence of chronic under-investment in public sector infrastructure means that there remains a considerable requirement for consultant engineers' services, particularly in the non-domestic building sector.

The growth in the UK infrastructure market has highlighted the shortage of trained engineers in the country. This shortage has been met, in part, by the use of overseas personnel ・ either through the acquisition of overseas firms or the use of existing overseas offices.

Key Players and their Major Characteristics

UK firms have effectively been faced with a number of options as they have faced new procurement methods, such as PFI/PPP, and the development of less confrontational methods of project commissioning. They have had to grow their own range of activities (either organically or via acquisition), or to concentrate on niche markets. They have had the possibility of diversifying, by increasing the number of market segments in which they operate; and have had the possibility of expanding their provision of services downstream into facilities management.

Expansion on this scale is difficult for those consulting engineers which are not publicly quoted and therefore do not have easy access to raising new finance. It is noteworthy that partnerships effectively no longer exist at this level. Some companies are owned by employees, but the largest companies, which have registered the greatest expansion, such as Atkins, WSP and Mouchel Parkman - are publicly quoted.

In addition, the growth in PFI/PPP projects has also encouraged the expansion of the larger companies. The need for participants to demonstrate financial stability has, again, favoured the larger firms. As a result the gap between the largest four firms and the rest has been growing.

The trend towards partnering does not necessarily help the situation. Although the early involvement of firms in the definition of infrastructure projects and their specification does not necessarily imply the capacity to realise them, the existence of such expertise will offer the larger firms a competitive advantage. In this respect, it is probably significant that the top water consultant engineer, the American firm MWH Europe, is a niche operator, which also offers construction services.

It is possible, however, that this movement in the procurement market, which has favoured the larger firms may have reached its zenith. There are two factors at work, which are changing the situation. Firstly, there is a move for some services (which have been out-sourced) to be taken back in-house (e.g. Network Rail and the maintenance contracts). Secondly, an analysis of the profit margins to be made by providing some of the lower value maintenance services is leading to a realisation that capital may be better employed using skills with a higher value added content - thus Atkins is reducing some of its PFI/PPP activity.

For the smaller consulting firms, there appear to be two main roles for them to play in the future. Firstly, the out-sourcing of specification that has taken place means that there is a requirement for evaluation of such specification which the client no longer possesses; the advisory role of consulting engineers - such as Scott Wilson Piesold, Halcrow and others - remains of critical importance. Secondly, there is the development of alliances and partnering contracts with long term clients - tying the fortunes of the consulting engineer to those of its client - as is suggested with Hyder Consulting.

Finally, it will be important to retain the international dimension and consulting engineers are becoming more international in their presence - not just their activities. Also, the presence of international companies in the UK has increased, where they have been able to take advantage of their strength in particular markets. Whilst the consulting engineers identify China as a major new market for the next few years, some have also turned their attention to Eastern Europe where more complex, particularly environmental, projects may require external expertise. The UK market will remain important, but the level of expansion that has been experienced over the last five years may not be maintained at the same rate.

End User Markets and their Evolution

To summarise, the period up until 2003 saw a substantial rise in the value of new orders for infrastructure, health and education work, but a slight decline for private sector work, including sport, leisure and new offices. The construction market continues to be underpinned by the Government痴 commitment to public spending, particularly in the sectors of transport, education and healthcare.

Transport has been a buoyant market with expenditure on the railways increasing substantially due to the need for track renewal. The new plan for the railways calls for investment of ｣28 billion over the next seven years. Spending on roads is likely to suffer in comparison with spending on the railways and it is unlikely that the current levels of expenditure (which include maintenance and the encouragement of busways) will be maintained at over ｣4 billion a year in the next Spending Review. In spite of the encouragement of light railway systems, there is unlikely to be extensive investment in this market over the next five years.

Water and sewerage investment will be determined by the Spending Review for 2005-2010. The indications are that spending will rise and amount to ｣16-19 billion over the five-year period. Much of the investment will be incurred in meeting EU Water Framework Directive. Some spending will be directed towards alleviating the effects of flooding.

Environmental concerns affect many aspects of infrastructure. The current stress on sustainable development has given added weight to a number of policies and they have also been underpinned by the impact of new EU Directives. Many of these initiatives require action on the part of local authorities and are therefore likely to be affected by alterations in the financing of their expenditure. Coastal and inland flooding and waste recycling are the main areas where significant investment will take place.

Until recently the energy market has been subdued and there has been excess capacity. Over the next five years there is likely to be an increase in investment expenditure in order to secure supplies and also comply with pollution constraints as required by the UK's international commitments. Investment in gas generating capacity will increase as nuclear and coal fired plants are retired. In addition attention will be concentrated on improving efficiency and developing renewable or sustainable sources. Current Government plans encourage the development of wind power but it is not clear that it will be able to develop all the production capacity required to meet Government targets.

Healthcare work also remains a lucrative market for consulting engineers, driven by committed public spending by the Government. In the Government痴 Capital Spending Review, capital investment in the health sector is indicated to rise from ｣2.2bn in 2002/03 to ｣4.2bn in 2005/06 and over ｣6bn in 2007/08.With the NHS currently spending in excess of ｣2bn per year on capital investment, the implications for a capital build programme are therefore considerable with a proposed cumulative capital spend exceeding ｣11bn and plans for 100 additional large hospital schemes by 2010. Together with plans for a new generation of Diagnostic and Treatment Centres and a projected ｣4.2bn worth of new PFI investments, the outlook for construction activity, in this sector is favourable.

Education work as a percentage of overall output is growing steadily in both the public and private sectors. With the education budget set to rise from ｣56 billion in 2004 to around ｣64 billion in 2007-08 and the Government痴 ｣25 billion Building Schools for the Future programme to renew or rebuild the UK痴 entire secondary school estate by 2015, there should be plenty of opportunities for consulting engineers in the education sector.

Investment in telecommunications has been affected by the burst in the 租ot.com bubble・ investment is likely to rise substantially over the next five to ten years as new systems and technologies becomes available. BT currently plans to invest ｣15 billion on a new network over the next five years.

Opportunities for work by consultants are lower in the Commercial Office sector ・with government statistics indicating new orders for private office work have fallen by around 35% over the period 2000-2003. The recent downturn in demand for commercial offices has been most noticeable in the southeast and central London, however some regional office markets remained less volatile during this period. New office starts continue to decline compared to levels in 2003, although the rate of decline is falling. Starts are down in London and the southeast, but a number of regions are reporting modest increases including the North of England and West Midlands. Falling uptake and increased availability in the key office markets, following a downturn in the media, 租otcom・and financial services sectors, has depressed the flow of new orders for office projects.

Although the Leisure industry has suffered a number of crucial setbacks in the past 12 months in the form of SARS, the war in Iraq and the ongoing threat of terrorism, there remain considerable opportunities for consultants for new build and refurbishment projects in the stadia and arena sectors. Revenues generated in these sectors are set to increase as the importance of global sporting events increases. Plans are already well underway on the 19 new-build schemes for the 2008 Beijing summer Olympic Games, which is expected to generate around ｣23 billion worth of business and the London bid to stage the Olympics in 2012 has a facilities and infrastructure budget of ｣413m. It is also anticipated that total capital spending across the four football club divisions will exceed ｣1.5 billion by 2005.

These developments mean that consulting engineers have been operating in a buoyant UK market - particularly at a time when other major overseas markets were in recession. Although the UK market will continue to show growth, future increases in investment are likely to be driven by the public sector. The importance of the non-transport, privatised sector is likely to increase for energy and telecommunications, as it recovers from a very low level.

For consultant engineers their fees should therefore continue to show the benefit of past events in the near term. Thereafter there is likely to be increased pressure on business as the public sector clients take more functions in-house and seek to impose cost controls. In addition, the growth of the energy and telecommunications markets favours the use of in-house expertise.

Conclusions

After the initial enthusiasm for PFI/PPP projects the market is now rather more reserved. Although consulting engineers remain committed to the market, the level of their involvement is beginning to be reduced: there is less appetite for expansion into facilities management. Instead, more durable alliances are being formed with contractors and facilities managers. The role of consulting engineers is returning to specification, advice and evaluation.

The UK public sector has grown more dependent upon consulting engineers as it has devolved responsibility for specification through PFI/PPP outsourcing. As a result there are two - apparently contradictory trends. On the one hand, the public sector, or rather the private providers of public services, such as water, are increasingly involved in partnership arrangements in order to reach more efficient solutions. On the other hand, the overall public sector is seeking to re-establish control through standardised procedures and the centralisation of control capabilities, as exemplified by Gershorn. The two approaches may eventually converge, but if they do, the problem of evaluation and control will continue.

Throughout, it should be remembered that there is an underlying shortage of qualified engineers within the UK. Overseas engineers may be used to remedy the situation (through remote working). The future UK demand for consulting engineers over the next five to ten years, however, means that attention should be given to improving training and if necessary greater differentiation of the required capabilities. The role of consulting engineers in specifying projects and driving innovation in new products and techniques will continue to be critical.

Looking towards the future, the following trends may affect the Consultant Engineers market:

The industry may continue to become more international in operation.

The trend towards concentration of companies will continue;

Whilst the emphasis on partnering will continue, the public sector will move to concentrate its own procurement capacity to some extent;

The difficulty of promoting competition in such circumstances (reduction in the number of competitors, stronger specification and evaluation processes) may lead to a more contentious approach to the control of projects;

The level of risk devolved to consultant engineers and contractors will vary from sector to sector but may, on the whole, increase;

Current government policy to improve operational efficiency of procurement will place pressure on consultant fee levels;

Small, specialised, niche players will probably be squeezed if the government improves its own centralised capabilities since the support and advisory roles will be reduced in scope and number.

建設コンサルタント会社も市場調査の対象になるところが面白い。イギリスもM&Aが盛んで昔からのポピュラーな会社の名前が消えている。

最近日本のコンサルタンを束ねる協会のジャーナルを読んだが、いつになっても同じセリフばかりである。もう３０年以上前から同じことばかりでちっとも緻密な分析や現実的なアイデアがない。言っている人を良く知っているのでなおさらの印象である。経営者としての力量は任期切れまでないのだろうか。協会はいつまでたっても持ち回りの人事であるし、お仲間的な活動しかない。困ったことである。