久々西イングランド大学が編集した首記最新アラート情報を下記に添付する。いつもながら見事な編集である。気候変動についての最新科学情報が分かる。さっきもテレビでゴア氏のドキュメンタリー番組を見たが、今後コンサルタントとして気候変動に対応するためには科学的な考察が必要である。
28 May, 2009
Issue 153 About this service Archive Contact Subscribe
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Will protected areas remain effective in the face of climate change?
Protected areas conserve biodiversity, but there are concerns that they may be less effective if climate change causes shifts in the distribution of species. A new study models the future movement of sub-Saharan birds in protected areas. Although many species will move, most will find suitable habitats amongst the network of protected areas under a scenario of intermediate climate change. One per cent of endangered species will lose all suitable habitat from the region.(more...)
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Biodiesel from microalgae: energy recovery and waste issues
A recent French study explores ways to maximise the potential of using microalgae to produce biofuels. This includes issues surrounding management of the algal biomass waste, the reuse of the nitrogen and phosphorus inputs as fertilisers in cultivated production and recovery of methane as an additional source of energy from the algal waste.(more...)
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Climate change policies need integrating into all sectors
Climate change policies need to be integrated into all levels of governance, from water management to energy, and across all sectors, from agriculture to traffic, according to a new report. As climate change initiatives interact with existing polices, across-the-board support is needed if climate change issues are to be successfully tackled. (more...)
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North Sea needs more protection from nutrient inputs
Reductions in the nutrients nitrogen and phosphorus flowing from rivers into the North Sea have had clear benefits on marine health in coastal waters, according to a recent study. However, the reductions are less effective in improving the condition of deeper offshore waters. Tougher measures to manage nutrient loads and prevent eutrophication are recommended.(more...)
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Capturing carbon straight from the air: what are the costs?
Carbon capture from power plants has gained much attention as a means to decrease greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). A recent study assesses an alternative method that directly removes carbon dioxide from the air. The findings indicate that this method is comparable in costs to the mitigation costs estimated by the IPCC and the Stern report.(more...)
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Zero carbon homes: house builders give their perspective
A new study has surveyed major house builders in the UK to understand what is needed if all new homes are to be zero carbon by 2016. The house builders generally felt that it is not an impossible challenge, but a comprehensive approach with clear guidelines, supported by necessary legislation is required. The results provide important lessons for sustainable construction programmes in other countries.(more...)
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Opinions expressed in this News Alert do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission.
FULL ARTICLES
Will protected areas remain effective in the face of climate change?
Protected areas conserve biodiversity, but there are concerns that they may be less effective if climate change causes shifts in the distribution of species. A new study models the future movement of sub-Saharan birds in protected areas. Although many species will move, most will find suitable habitats amongst the network of protected areas under a scenario of intermediate climate change. One per cent of endangered species will lose all suitable habitat from the region.
To help stop biodiversity loss in Europe, the EU has set up a network of over 26,000 protected areas forming the Natura 2000 network1. These represent more than 20 per cent of total EU territory. They have been established on the basis of the current distribution of species.
Climate change will have large impacts on biodiversity and will cause shifts in the distribution of species as they search for new, suitable habitat. In the case of the protected areas, these shifts could be outside the boundaries of protected areas or it could cause new species to move into the protected area. However, the designated sites constitute valuable space for nature, possibly allowing other species to move in.
The study looked at the network of Important Bird Areas (IBAs) across sub-Saharan Africa to test its resilience in the face of climate change. In total there were 1608 bird species, including 815 priority species (species that are vulnerable to extinction). The model projected data for three future time periods (2025, 2055 and 2085) and three future climate scenarios. For each IBA, it modelled turnover - the sum total of incoming and emigrating species, and 'species persistence' - the proportion of species for which the climate remains suitable.
Across all IBAs, the projected turnover of whole bird communities and subsets of endangered birds increased with time. Median turnover in 2085 was 20 to 26 per cent for all birds and 35 to 45 per cent for priority species. This indicates a large shift in ranges. There was variability across the continent. For example, areas of high turnover are evident in a band running east to south-east across southern Africa to the Ethiopian highlands.
Despite these shifts, the projected proportion of species that would remain in all IBAs is remarkably high - about 74 to 80 per cent of all birds in 2085. For endangered species, the figures are even better - 88 to 92 per cent of endangered species are projected to retain suitable habitat by 2085 in at least one IBA where they occur currently. For a further 62 to 93 species, suitable habitat will become newly available in protected areas where they are currently absent. Only 7 to 8 endangered species are expected to lose all suitable habitat from the network.
Nevertheless, the authors acknowledge the importance of the shifts in species distribution and suggest a number of recommendations. In particular, the results highlight the need for regionally focused management approaches. For example, increasing the number and size of protected areas, providing 'stepping stones' between habitats and protected areas and restoring critical types of habitat, as well as ensuring that the current IBA network is adequately protected into the future.
The authors are currently repeating the project for IBAs across Europe, including many Natura 2000 sites. They expect the results to be published in around a year's time.
See http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/natura2000/index_en.htm
Source: Hole, D.G., Willis, S.G., Pain, D.J. et al. (2009). Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network. Ecology Letters. 12: 420-431.
Contact: s.g.willis@durham.ac.uk
Theme(s): Biodiversity, Climate change and energy
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Biodiesel from microalgae: energy recovery and waste issues
A recent French study explores ways to maximise the potential of using microalgae to produce biofuels. This includes issues surrounding management of the algal biomass waste, the reuse of the nitrogen and phosphorus inputs as fertilisers in cultivated production and recovery of methane as an additional source of energy from the algal waste.
Microalgae contain oils, or 'lipids', that can be converted into biodiesel. The idea of using microalgae to produce fuel is not new, but has received recent renewed attention in the search for sustainable energy. Biodiesel is typically produced from plant oils, but there are widely-voiced concerns about the sustainability of this practice. Biodiesel produced from microalgae is being investigated as an alternative to using conventional crops, such as rapeseed: microalgae typically produce more oil, consume less space and could be grown on land unsuitable for agriculture. However, many technical and environmental issues, such as land use and fertiliser input still need to be researched and large-scale commercial production has still not been attained.
Using microalgae as a source of biofuels could mean that enormous cultures of algae are grown for commercial production, which would require large quantities of fertilisers. While microalgae are estimated to be capable of producing 10-20 times more biodiesel than rapeseed, they need 55 to 111 times more nitrogen fertiliser: 8-16 tonnes per hectare per year. Such quantities of nitrogen and phosphorus could damage the environment. Additionally, it could limit the economic viability of using microalgae. Nitrogen and phosphorus found in algal waste, after the oils have been extracted, must therefore be recycled. The research suggests that 'anaerobic digestion' could accomplish this goal.
Anaerobic digestion of the algal waste produces carbon dioxide, methane and ammonia. Left-over nitrogen and phosphorus compounds can be reused as fertiliser to the algal process. Using the methane as an energy source can further enhance energy recovery from the process.
In the laboratory study, the researchers highlighted some key issues to be addressed in microalgal production:
Sodium (in salt) can inhibit the anaerobic digestion process when using marine algae, although researchers suggest suitable bacteria (anaerobic digesters) can adapt.
Digestion of the algae can be enhanced and the methane yield increased by physical or chemical pre-treatment to break down cell walls and make the organic matter in the cells more accessible.
The nitrogen content of certain algae can be high, resulting in greater levels of ammonia which can also inhibit the digestion process. One strategy to overcome this problem uses a 'codigestion' process, whereby other organic waste, which is higher in carbon and lower in nitrogen, is added to the algal waste. For example, paper waste, food waste or sewage sludge can be added to the process. However, this can raise questions concerning 'downcycling', which is generally discouraged.
Another strategy would be to choose species of microalgae that naturally have a higher carbon to nitrogen ratio.
The results suggest that if the lipid content of the microalgae is less than 40 per cent, more overall energy would be recovered if just methane is produced directly from the algae, without first extracting the lipids. This method of methane production would need to be fully assessed against other methods, such as biomethane production from waste, to understand its viability. However, if the goal is to produce biodiesel, the key implication is that the species of microalgae used for cultivation should be chosen carefully: the algae should have greater than 40 per cent lipid content. Additional energy recovery through methane is then possible through anaerobic digestion of the algal waste after oil extraction.
Source: Sialve, B., Bernet, N., Bernard, O. (2009). Anaerobic digestion of microalgae as a necessary step to make microalgal biodiesel sustainable. Biotechnology Advances. doi:10.1016/j.biotechadv.2009.03.001.
Contact: bruno.sialve@naskeo.com
Theme(s): Biotechnology, Climate change and energy, Sustainable consumption and production
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Climate change policies need integrating into all sectors
Climate change policies need to be integrated into all levels of governance, from water management to energy, and across all sectors, from agriculture to traffic, according to a new report1. As climate change initiatives interact with existing polices, across-the-board support is needed if climate change issues are to be successfully tackled.
The authors assessed how far climate change policy has been integrated into all levels of governance in six European countries: Denmark, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom.
The study found that governments show widespread support for climate change policies, which are increasingly integrated into national strategies. For example, in Denmark in 2005, climate change was mentioned six times in the 2005 government programme, but was included 79 times in the 2007 programme. But dealing with climate change is complex. The researchers suggest that strategies must be integrated through local, national, regional and global levels, if major changes in production and consumption are to be made.
For example, adaptation strategies with a regional or local focus (concerning water management and agriculture, for example) need to be supported with appropriate financial and legal frameworks at national and European levels. National mitigation strategies need to be implemented by local and regional decision-makers across all sectors, such as traffic and energy. In particular, this includes greater integration with specific policy instruments: land use planning and annual budgeting are examples of instruments through which mitigation and adaptation strategies can be implemented.
The impact of extreme weather events, such as the flooding of the rivers Rhine and Meuse in the Netherlands (1993 and 1995) and the Elbe and the Mulde (2002) in Germany have led to the integration of adaptation into strategies for specific policy sectors. And many cities, for example, Copenhagen, Rotterdam and Helsinki, have set ambitious climate commitments.
Policy makers face many challenges in integrating climate policy into an increasing number of policy sectors. Contentious issues, including nuclear power, hydropower, taxation and mobility, have become part of the climate change debate. As well as managing technical and political trade-offs, decision-makers are also advised by researchers to recognise and address public concerns early on to implement climate policies successfully.
The report suggests the recent global economic downturn can be viewed as an opportunity to promote climate change measures. Supported by innovation, new markets and enterprises, mitigation and adaptation policies could benefit both industry and the climate. But it cautions that technical changes must be socially acceptable to avoid new conflicts.
Greater understanding of the complexity of climate change will develop from ongoing research. Climate integration policies and programmes should be based on the best available information and evaluated before and after implementation to learn from past experience. Sufficient resources are crucial to finding alternative solutions to climate change and for successfully integrating them into the appropriate policies.
There is the opportunity to combine climate change with other issues, such as energy security. But climate change measures must be applied consistently and, if necessary, with sufficient political weight to ensure climate polices are integrated across all levels of governance.
See: http://peer-initiative.org/media/m235_PEER_Report2.pdf
Source: Mickwitz, P., Aix, F., Beck, S. et al. (2009). Climate Policy Integration, Coherence and Governance. PEER Report No 2. Helsinki: Partnership for European Environmental Research.
Contact: per.mickwitz@ymparisto.fi
Theme(s): Climate change and energy, Sustainable development and policy assessment
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North Sea needs more protection from nutrient inputs
Reductions in the nutrients nitrogen and phosphorus flowing from rivers into the North Sea have had clear benefits on marine health in coastal waters, according to a recent study. However, the reductions are less effective in improving the condition of deeper offshore waters. Tougher measures to manage nutrient loads and prevent eutrophication are recommended.
Reductions in nutrient levels in recent years are the result of the PARCOM recommendation of the OSPAR Commission1, signed in 1988. Together with the European Commission, OSPAR links fifteen governments in Western Europe to protect and conserve the marine environment of the North-East Atlantic. PARCOM is not legally binding, but functions as a guideline in designing measures to reduce nutrient inputs. In 1997, OSPAR developed the Common Procedure (OSPAR CP) for the Identification of the Eutrophication Status of Maritime Areas. A set of Ecological Quality Objectives (EcoQO) were established as criteria to assess eutrophication status.
PARCOM calls for a 50 per cent reduction in dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus flowing into the sea by 2010 compared with 1985 levels. Nutrients released into rivers and estuaries by human activities, such as agriculture, are the main cause of eutrophication. Eutrophication causes accelerated growth of algae and other plant life, affecting the balance of organisms and water quality.
The researchers, working under the EU ECOOP project2, modelled the effects of reduced nutrient flows during 1985-2006 on five marine zones of the North Sea near the Netherlands and Germany. They used river and nutrient load data from countries surrounding the North Sea in the 3D physical-chemical-biological model to identify the long-term effects on marine health. Influencing factors taken into account included water temperature, salinity, climate, heat fluxes, wind stress, atmospheric pressure fields, tides, radiation and light.
Nutrient levels in the sea dropped in line with the 50 per cent reduction measures. The results indicated that the three study areas closer to major estuaries rapidly responded to the measures. For example, average winter concentrations in these areas were reduced by 50 per cent for nitrogen and 35 per cent for phosphorus, stabilising after 2-3 years. The greatest reductions in nutrient concentrations are along the Dutch coast. In contrast, offshore areas were affected by reductions to a lesser extent with only a very weak increase in oxygen levels. Decreased oxygen levels are a symptom of eutrophication. However, the complex interplay of tides, currents and winds influence oxygen levels, and this interplay is likely to have prevented the effects of reduced nutrients reaching offshore areas. While there were some limits to the model, the results broadly corresponded with direct measurements observed in previous research.
The OSPAR CP and EcoQOs have obvious strengths due to their clear goals and simplicity, and the nutrient reductions achieved as the result of PARCOM have led to some important improvements. However, the researchers believe that a 50 per cent reduction is not sufficient for the North Sea. Further reductions are needed to prevent eutrophication in the long term, especially under a changing climate. Climate change may cause increased nutrient inputs, for example.
The researchers call for an international nutrient monitoring and modelling programme, with a common system of measuring and classifying. Harmonising the eutrophication strategies of OSPAR, the EU's Water Framework Directive3 and the European Marine Strategy4 is one of the greatest challenges facing the North Sea, they suggest.
See: www.ospar.org
ECOOP (European Coastal sea Operational Observing and Forecasting System) was supported by the European Commission under the Sixth Framework Programme. See: www.ecoop.eu
See: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/water-framework/index_en.html
See: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/marine/index_en.htm
Source: Skogen, M. and Mathisen, L. (2009). Long-term effects of reduced nutrient inputs to the North Sea. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. 82(3): 433-442.
Contact: morten@imr.no
Theme(s): Marine ecosystems, Water
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Capturing carbon straight from the air: what are the costs?
Carbon capture from power plants has gained much attention as a means to decrease greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). A recent study assesses an alternative method that directly removes carbon dioxide from the air. The findings indicate that this method is comparable in costs to the mitigation costs estimated by the IPCC and the Stern report.
Targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions have been set at both a global and a European level. The European Union is committed to cutting its GHGs by at least 20 per cent of 1990 levels by 20201. Much focus has recently been on the capture and storage of carbon dioxide from power plants as a means of cutting GHGs.
However, the method of 'air capture' has received little attention. Air capture is the direct removal of carbon dioxide from the ambient air. Various methods have been suggested and some have been operationally tested. For example, systems have been developed using sodium hydroxide and lime to remove carbon dioxide. Since it is likely that the technology for air capture will only develop in coming years, this research examines the economics of this method.
Using predictions from the US Energy Information Agency and from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the study performs a simple calculation to estimate the amount of global carbon dioxide present in the atmosphere for the 21st century. It then estimates the costs of air capture for two different levels of CO2 stabilisation - 450 parts per million (ppm) and 550 ppm. Since estimates vary for the cost of air capture, it uses three values and expresses the costs of air capture as a percentage of global GDP.
The Stern report2 estimates the costs of mitigation in order to stabilise CO2 at 450 ppm to be about 1 per cent of global GDP in 2100. Using the report's assumptions for GDP growth of 2.5 per cent per year, the study estimates that air capture could cost from 0.5 to 2.7 per cent of global GDP, depending on the cost of the technology. Using the IPCC GDP growth projection of 2.9 per cent per year, the cost of using air capture to stabilise CO2 at 450 ppm would be 0.4 to 2.1 per cent of global GDP.
The author warns that making global cost estimates for a complex set of interrelated systems is an uncertain business. However, the analysis shows that air capture compares favourably with the cost estimates for mitigation provided in these reports if making similar assumptions to the IPCC and Stern reports. In addition, because the cost of air capture technology is likely to decrease over time it may be more financially advantageous. Although the imprecise nature of these results cannot prove air capture to be superior, they do indicate that it should receive similar levels of attention and analysis as other approaches.
See
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/07/29&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
See www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm
Source: Pielke, R.A. Jr. (2009). An idealized assessment of the economics of air capture of carbon dioxide in mitigation policy. Environmental Science & Policy. 12: 216-225.
Contact: pielke@colorado.edu;
Theme(s): Climate change and energy, Environmental technologies
長いが記録する価値はある。
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Zero carbon homes: house builders give their perspective
A new study has surveyed major house builders in the UK to understand what is needed if all new homes are to be zero carbon by 2016. The house builders generally felt that it is not an impossible challenge, but a comprehensive approach with clear guidelines, supported by necessary legislation is required. The results provide important lessons for sustainable construction programmes in other countries.
In April 2009, the European Parliament voted on amendments to strengthen a proposal of the European Commission to recast the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (2002/91/EC)1. The residential and tertiary sector, the major part of which is buildings, accounts for more than 40 per cent of energy consumption in the EU. Europe could thus make a considerable contribution to meeting Kyoto targets by applying tougher standards to buildings. The UK has set itself a 'world-beating' target: aiming for all new homes to be zero carbon by 2016 in its 'Code for Sustainable Homes'2, published in 2006. In order to be zero carbon, buildings must generate as much energy as they consume.
The Code for Sustainable Homes uses environmental impact rating system of 1 to 6 to indicate overall sustainability of a new house: a rating of 6 equates to a zero carbon home, which specifies that required domestic energy must be generated from renewable sources. This exceeds other international housing standards. For example, Germany's 'PassivHaus' sets a maximum level of energy usage (15 kWh/m2 a year for heating and cooling), but does not specify the source of energy.
The house builders' responses to the survey suggest:
The Code for Sustainable Homes is a significant driver of zero carbon homes.
New technologies and products would also significantly help builders achieve the target. Zero carbon homes are not considered possible with todays technologies and so the supply chain is seen as a major barrier. Sufficient resources are needed for the government and building industry to research and develop appropriate and cost-effective technologies.
There are no financial incentives for producing zero carbon homes. Additionally, there is much uncertainty about how much it will cost to build a zero carbon building, but it is generally considered to be more than a standard house.
The most significant legislative barrier was an unclear definition of 'zero carbon'. Builders were unsure of the requirements, for example, the need to provide onsite renewable energy. Appropriate guidelines would be beneficial. For instance, does renewable energy distributed at a district level by Energy Service Companies (ESCos), rather than onsite, count towards zero carbon status?
There was concern over the reliability of renewable technologies. An alternative and more cost-effective solution to providing onsite renewable energy would be to distribute renewable energy from ESCos.
Consumers need to be made aware of the benefits of zero carbon homes, although there have been recent signs of increased demand for such homes. As such, the house builders called for the government to act upon this growing demand and legislate to create a national market for zero carbon homes.
See: http://europa.eu/scadplus/leg/en/lvb/l27042.htm
See: www.planningportal.gov.uk/england/professionals/en/1115314116927.html
Source: Osmani, M. and O'Reilly. (2009). Feasibility of zero carbon homes in England by 2016: A house builder's perspective. Building and Environment. 44:1917-1924.
Contact: m.osmani@lboro.ac.uk
Theme(s): Climate change and energy, Sustainable consumption and production
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