ECが提供する首記のメルマガから３つの話題をピックアップ。いつもながら興味深い内容である。
このところ水管理に関する仕事が主体で、政策への科学的なアプローチの重要性を強く感じているし、自分も解析や評価に係りたいと思っている。入口程度の情報だが良くまとまっている。ちょっとしたヒントになる。これ以上知りたければ、ドアは開けてくれて、更なる詳細はどうぞという仕組みである。
水管理もそればかりではつまらない。やはり科学的、技術的なアプローチによる開発計画が両輪のように進める必要がある。
1.Renewable energy boosts economy and brings new jobs
Renewable energy policy aims to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions whilst stimulating the economy and employment. The first study to assess the economic effects of supporting renewable energy indicates that meeting the EU renewable targets could provide about 410,000 new jobs and 0.24 per cent additional GDP for the EU.
In December 2008, the EU passed the Renewable Energy Directive to set Europe the goal of reaching a 20 per cent share of renewable energy in energy consumption by 2020. This had three aims: to combat climate change, increase security of energy supply and promote economic growth and jobs. This peer-reviewed study, conducted on behalf of the European Commission, investigates the third of these aims.
The study used several economic models to analyse how renewable energy policies affect the EU's economy and job market. It also looked at impacts on sectors including the traditional energy sector, households and the hospitality industry.
The results demonstrate that renewable energy is already important in terms of employment and economy. In 2005, the sector employed 1.4 million people and contributed 0.58 per cent of the EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The future impact of the renewable energy sector was also investigated by comparing three scenarios:
a) all renewable energy policies are abandoned
b) business as usual (BAU)
c) national renewable energy policies are strengthened considerably so they are consistent with reaching 2020 targets
All scenarios used data for future energy demand, fossil fuel prices and the price of CO2 in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme are taken from 'European Energy and Transport Trends by 2030.
The BAU scenario led to only a 14 per cent share of renewable energy in final energy consumption in 2020. Alongside this would be a 0.11-0.14 per cent increase in GDP and a gain of between 115,000 to 201,000 employees. In comparison, the stronger renewable energy policy scenario would reach the EU target of a 20 per cent share of renewables by 2020. Alongside this would be a 0.23 to 0.25 per cent increase in GDP and a gain of between 396,000 and 417,000 additional employees (without affecting employment levels in other sectors of industry). The variation was due to different estimates of rising energy costs.
Reaching the 20 per cent target with the stronger policy scenario is estimated to result in 2.8 million jobs in total in the renewable energy sector in the EU-27, assuming moderate levels of renewable energy export to the rest of the world.
The report suggests that policies should promote innovation in wind power, solar photovoltaic and solar thermal technologies. Sectors such as biomass, which currently produces over 60 per cent of the renewable energy sector's impact on employment, will lose its economic significance over time. In addition, the report suggests that innovation will in time reduce the costs of technology.
The figures do not consider the value of renewable energy in terms of their contribution to the environment and security of supply. The report suggests if these external costs were included the economic benefits could be even higher.
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2.Mapping groundwater flooding for the EU Floods Directive
In the coming years the EU Floods Directive will require Member States to produce flood hazard and risk maps. Taking the UK as a case study, new research highlights the need for advances in data collection, mapping and groundwater flood warning systems to meet EU requirements for maps and management plans.
Although often occurring less frequently than fluvial (river) flooding, the effects of groundwater flooding can be as devastating, if not more damaging. Groundwater flooding is caused by water emerging from underground, for example, from areas underlain by chalk and aquifers in contact with the sea. Groundwater flooding can cause flooding of basements, ground floors, farmland and roads and can leave areas submerged for months.
The EU Floods Directive requires Member States to carry out a preliminary assessment by 2011 to identify areas at risk of flooding. Member States must draw up flood risk maps by 2013 and establish flood risk management plans by 2015. In the UK, data collection and collation on groundwater flooding has been locally focused and conducted gradually, area by area. This research summarises possible data and techniques that could be used to produce groundwater flood maps and flood management plans by examining existing data on groundwater flooding in the UK.
Before Spring 2006, there was no single organisation responsible for monitoring groundwater flooding in the UK. However, some valuable data were collected during the groundwater flood events of 2000/2001 and 2002/2003. The lack of consistent records of groundwater flooding indicates a need for a database that captures information on flooding from all sources to enable a joined-up approach to flood risk management.
Records of groundwater flooding are a source for identifying susceptible areas. However, under-reporting and uncertainty make it difficult to assess the likelihood, as well as the possible depth, of flooding. The study suggests that a more comprehensive approach would be to apply our understanding of flooding mechanisms in areas where flood risks exist, such as chalk valleys.
Hazard maps developed for these areas could assess the frequency of drivers such as rainfall or prior groundwater levels. They could also assess surrogates (or measurements that can represent flooding levels) such as spring discharge rates or flows from rivers draining aquifers. The combination of drivers and surrogates could also be examined.
Alongside hazard maps, risk maps should indicate potential adverse consequences on population, economic activity and vulnerable buildings.
To further meet the requirements of the EU Flood Directive, the study recommends a UK information service to assist in the preparation for potential groundwater flooding. This includes making data and maps available to the public, helping develop community action plans and expanding the existing fluvial flood warning service to communities at risk from groundwater flooding.
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3. Climate-driven changes in German floods
A recent study suggests climate change has increased flooding in many regions in Germany, but that flood patterns vary across the country. When planning protective measures, regulators should be aware of the behaviour of flooding in specific areas of the country.
Severe flooding has occurred in Germany over the last few decades, causing loss of life, displacement of people and livestock and heavy financial losses. For example, severe damage was caused in the Rhine river basin in 1993 and 1995, the Odra basin in 1997, the Danube basin in 1999, 2002 and 2006 and the Elbe basin in 2002. There is growing concern that climate change is to blame for increased flooding.
The researchers studied water flow measurements for the period 1951-2002 from 145 gauge stations across Germany to detect trends in the number and size of floods. The study used eight flood indicators, including annual, winter and summer maximum discharges and flood peak measurements, particularly in the large catchments of the Danube, Rhine, Elbe and Weser rivers.
Significant changes and trends in flood behaviour were found for the major catchment areas, suggesting that flood hazards have increased for large parts over the last 50 years. Findings include:
a) Most indicator measurements had increased over time in western, southern and central areas (Danube, Rhine, Weser river basins) of Germany, particularly annual maximum discharges
b)Smaller changes occurred in the northeast of the country (Elbe basin)
c)Winter floods dominate the Rhine and Weser catchments
d)More sites are affected by summer flooding in the Danube catchment than the Rhine and Weser catchments
e)A cluster of gauges showing decreasing summer floods was detected in the Elbe and Weser basins
g)The frequency of floods increased, especially along the River Danube
The clustering of flood sites and seasonal floods suggest that the changes have been driven by the climate. The researchers compared their results with other studies that have looked at changes in climate, particularly in the circulation patterns in the atmosphere. Such patterns appear to be related to flooding in Germany. The frequency and duration of atmospheric circulation patterns above Europe is suspected to be linked to floods.
For example, during the winter, increasing westerly circulation patterns have caused greater rainfall and for longer periods. This can cause saturation of the ground over a large scale with subsequent faster run-off. Moreover, winter temperatures have risen over the last 100 years. These climate change findings are consistent with, for example, the upward trends of the maximum discharges detected in the Elbe and Weser catchments in the winter. The researchers suggest the milder winters and intensified rainfall may have increased flooding.
In summary, flooding behaviour has increased in Germany over the last five decades. The pattern of flood changes varies significantly on a regional scale although this appears to be driven by wider-scale climate change.
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